I have always been fascinated by the behavior of our atmosphere and oceans. The more I learned about them the more I realized how critical "thresholds" are in our science. I know I can hear you saying it again, what is he talking about? It will become clear pretty fast, read on.

We either have clouds with some coverage of the sky or we have none. Cloud formation is controlled by saturation of moisture in the atmosphere and if relative humidity reaches 100% or very close to it clouds form, if humidity stays at 99% no clouds form. That magic 100% humidity threshold controls clear or cloud! You and I know it either rains or it doesn't.

A cloud has to reach a critical water loading point before cloud drops coalesce and begin to fall in the cloud gathering size as they capture other tiny drops along their fall and eventually produce rain.

If water loading is not high enough, we keep a threatening looking cloud but get no rain! So there is a water loading threshold in every cloud if surpassed transitions from no rain to rain!

If it precipitates it will be rain, snow, sleet, or hail. The form of precipitation we get depends on critical atmospheric thresholds mostly centered near the freezing or melting point of water.

If temperatures in cloud and at ground are just a hair too warm, we get rain or in some rarer cases hail or sleet.

If temperatures in cloud and at ground are just a hair below freezing (32F/0C) we get snow. That magic 32F threshold makes a big difference to precipitation impacts in our neighborhood as rain runs off, while snow can stay an entire winter!

It turns out that on any day the ability for air to rise and form a tall cloud, we call a cumulonimbus, depends on how temperature changes with height. If air warms with increasing elevation above ground or a puff of air that is lifted cools to a temperature colder than its surroundings it will stop rising and may actually descend. If that air puff remains warmer than its surrounds it will continue to rise and that rise could result in a 50,000 foot cumulonimbus cloud with lightning and thunder!

There is a vertical temperature change threshold everywhere, every day that tells us if we get little or no rising air or we get a cumulonimbus cloud. Of yes, thresholds are everywhere in weather. Dew or no dew on the grass, on leaves and on our cars depends solely on the air reaching a threshold temperature which results in saturation. So we either get dew or we don't depending upon whether the air saturation temperature threshold is reached or not!

Along our coasts or lake shores we often sea a daytime sea breeze form; air blows from water to land. Formation of the sea breeze is control by the temperature difference between land and water.

If land becomes warmer than water we get a sea breeze, if it remains cooler we do not. So there is a critical land water temperature threshold that dictates onset of sea breeze or not! Fog formation is controlled by a critical threshold too. It is basically a very shallow cloud perched on the ground.

Fog formation is controlled by whether air near the ground reaches saturation, condenses and forms a cloud or it doesn't. This threshold can be very delicate and met more often in very shallow form over the cool grass in a graveyard than over the warmer asphalt street. But no matter it is a humidity threshold that dictates whether we get fog or clear air!

We find thresholds in our oceans too. If winds are light the sea surface becomes mirror like. If winds are very light we may see some very small "capillary waves" on the water surface but it mostly remains pretty smooth. But when wind reaches a critical speed and/or has gusts with it that do, we begin to see capillary waves break, and that forms whitecaps.

You have seen whitecaps many times on lakes, at the beach, on a ship and in movies. There is a critical threshold of wind and its gustiness that when met causes whitecaps; if it is not met we see no whitecaps. These are important because waves grow much faster when whitecaps form; they transfer energy from the very tiny wave scales to much larger ones.

At some coastal beaches waves are blocked by land on many days and that coast is void of waves. But if those waves reach a critical wave period (time between successive wave crests) threshold, then wave energy is bent enough to direct waves around land that typically acts as a block and we get waves on beaches we usually do not see. This all depends on a threshold of wave period being met or not!

I could go on and on with examples of atmosphere and ocean thresholds, but I think you get the point. My fascination with weather and oceans lies in these thresholds and trying to determine when many of them are going to be met or not. Being wrong by one degree in air temperature or wrong by one second in wave period can lead to huge errors in our forecasts of clouds, rain, precipitation type, wind, fog, dew and coastal waves. It turns out these are the very elements of most interest to you; and they are all controlled by thresholds! Thresholds move and change from one day to the next which really makes forecasting them tricky.

So I guess what I am saying to you is next time you blame the weather person for a "bad forecast" just remember it may have been that the forecast was "almost" perfect, but unfortunately a critical threshold was barely missed possibly by a fraction of a degree! Such is the nature of weather and marine forecasting, it's all about accurately forecasting thresholds, not just forecasting the simple absolute numbers.

So you have planned to head for the beach and waves on spring break this year? I don't blame you, I would too if I could!

Now I realize some of you have been in semi-hibernation all winter long and have fallen out of shape just a bit. Don't worry most people won't notice the minor winter flab and snow white flesh. But just remember you may not be in your peak physical condition to pull off some of your typical/desired stunts once you get there, and that includes a long swim in cold water after a few intoxicating beverages (don't drink and swim.)

Here are 10 water safety tips I have complied for you to pack with your swim suit and T-shirt.

Tip #1: Never swim alone.

If you get in trouble there is no one there to help you out. Always swim with a friend, around other swimmers and if possible in front of a manned lifeguard stand.

Tip #2: Don't exceed your capability in the water.

If you can't swim or you are a very poor swimmer do not venture out beyond where you can easily stand. There are often holes to fall in and if you are already in water up to your neck, that hole will likely put you in water over your head.

Tip #3: Check for warning flags.

Check the lifeguard stand to see if there are any warning flags posted before you enter the water. The most common flags are for; high surf, dangerous rip currents, stinging sea creatures and dangerous along shore currents near jetties and piers.

Tip #4: Watch water and waves.

Watch the water and waves for a while before you go in. That will allow you to assess how big some of the larger waves may be and whether there are any currents or rip current where you plan to swim.

Tip #5: Yell for help.

If you cannot swim or you are a poor swimmer and get caught in a rip current, the first thing to do is yell for help or quickly ask a swimmer near you for help.

I call the rip current the "silent killer" because I have seen many people rescued by lifeguards and rescued a few of them myself that never said a word; they would have just drowned in silence and unfortunately some do! You need to yell for help before you get in water over your head if you cannot swim, otherwise you will not be yelling, just sinking! Wave your hands for help as well, especially if you are beyond being heard.

Do anything you can to attract attention so others can come to your aid before it's too late. Don't worry no one will remember you once you are back on the beach, but they will remember you if they have to haul you off in a bag!

Tip #6: Remain calm.

If you swim well, and you get caught in a rip current there are a few simple things to do. First remain relaxed. Swim parallel to the beach (not toward shore) for about 30 yards. Because rip currents are "usually" narrow, less than 30 yards across, you will swim out of the rip current by doing this. Then you can swim toward shore easily.

If the rip is very strong and you are quickly being pulled out faster than you are able to swim toward shore, then yell for help and wave for help. Don't fight the rip current; remember a good swimmer can float for a long time in salt water.

Let the rip current take you out where you can float safely "beyond the breaker zone" until you can be rescued. But remember this method requires you to be a pretty good swimmer. Also remember the farther out you get the harder it is for anyone to hear your yell or see your hands waving!

Tip #7: Don't be a hero.

If you are in the surf with a pal and he/she is a poor swimmer and gets caught in a rip current, don't try be the hero! If you are not a very good swimmer and you are not trained to rescue, call for professional help to aid in the rescue as fast as possible.

It is unfortunate, but not infrequently the person that tries to rescue ends up being the one who drowns while the original victim is saved. Or both individuals drown! This is especially true when the original victim is much large in size/weight that the rescuer who is not a good swimmer!

Tip #8: Again, ask for help.

If you are a parent on the beach and see your child in trouble, yell for help before you venture in the water and venture in only if you are a good swimmer. You will have given your child the best chance for survival, assuming you followed my tip #1.

If you are a good swimmer and trained in rescue, go ahead yourself after your child as you yell for help.

Tip #9: Watch the waves.

When waves get large and are coming toward the beach at an angle, they cause a current to form that pulls up or down the beach. Make sure you do not venture into the surf just up-current from a pier or jetty where you can be pulled toward that man-made obstacle.

These obstacles are normally covered with sharp barnacles or sharp muscles that easily cut. Waves can hurl you into a rock jetty or pier piling causing serious injury.

Tip #10: Think before you jump.

Finally, never jump or dive into water of unknown depth! You can imagine the outcome if water is very shallow! This is most commonly associated with the inebriated show-off.

OK, now you are ready. Go out there and have a great spring break. If you follow these simple tips you should come home in one piece and have a treasure chest of great memories. But if you don't your spring break could be a nightmare you would prefer to forget.

Have a safe trip!

After a cold, snowy February with just one tornado (in California), it began to warm up in recent days in March. Today, March had its first tornado -- near Elk City and Hammon in western Oklahoma. Early reports indicated that 5 homes (some or all were mobile homes) and a county barn were destroyed in Hammon.

I've drawn labels on two photos below from twitpic.com -
http://www.twitter.com/kc5fm The first photo shows the broad swirling cloud pattern, with the upper cloud deck moving from left to right across the picture. It's a band of clouds along and above a gust front - the leading edge of rain-cooled and sometimes hail-cooled downdraft and outflow. That downdraft and outflow is in the lower left below that dark cloud and is called the rear-flank downdraft in the case of a rotating, supercell thunderstorm like this one. The tornado is evident, and there is a wider column of cloud above it called a wall cloud -- associated with the storm's rotating updraft.

from twitpic.com - http://www.twitter.com/kc5fm

The next picture zooms in on the tornado and its wall cloud. In this case the funnel doesn't totally reach the ground, but there is a light-gray dust cloud from the bottom of the funnel to the ground that indicates that the tornado winds were present near the surface.

from twitpic.com - http://www.twitter.com/kc5fm

Initial reports are that the tornado lasted more than a half hour, and certainly took on a wide "stove-pipe" or cone shape for part of the time. That's pretty impressive, considering that its parent storm wasn't that big. It's what could be called a low-topped supercell, with top at about 35,000 feet (not the 50,000+ monsters of May). The radar images below are from about the time when the tornado was hitting Hammond. The storm was far from the NWS radars, so the lowest scan through it was at about 8,000 feet, so it doesn't have the type of low-level hook echo often seen when the storm is near the radar. The white line shows the orientation of the slice, shown in the subsequent image. (radar imagery using GrLevelX)

Here's a slice through the storm, showing its top at about 35,000 feet. The violet core indicates hail -- reported up to one-inch diameter.

This was what is also called a "cold-core" tornado situation. It was near the counterclockwise-spinning cold mid-level low, shown below, and centered over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

That cold pocket aloft gave the thunderstorm its instability, as the surface temperature was only 61F and the dewpoint only 50-53F, as shown by the weather map below, much colder than a typical tornado situation. The temperature is to the upper left and the dewpoint to the lower left of each station circle. I've placed a T near the tornado location. The dashed blue line was mainly a dryline -- separating moister air to the east from drier air to the west. With clouds holding down the temperature in the moist air, and sun out in the dry air, it didn't have much of a cold front character, but will probably turn into one overnight when the dry air cools faster than the moister air.

I feel a little like a cousin to Punxsutawney Phil -- yanked suddenly out of my hole near the end of his six more weeks of winter weather -- and into the start of what may be a stormy spring.

February 2010 had no tornadoes; that's a record. In official National Weather Service records starting in 1950, the fewest previously in February was 2 in 2002 and 1964. For once, I get to report a GOOD tornado record!

Florida has perhaps been most lucky, since in past years with El Nino conditions present, there were several deadly tornado outbreaks in February. In fact, seven low-pressure weather systems crossed the Sunshine State this February that might have brought tornadoes, but none spawned one. Part of the credit for that has to go to the cold conditions across the East that brought record snowfalls to some locations. These drove cold, dry air repeatedly into Florida -- making it hard to recover to warm, moist, unstable conditions favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

As I write this blog (4PM Monday March 1), Florida is hoping that its luck will hold yet again. Another substantial low pressure system will move across the state on Tuesday, with again the threat of at least isolated severe thunderstorms and perhaps a tornado. Right now it's too dry for tornadoes anywhere in the state, but some moisture may move in as south winds strengthen ahead of the approaching low.

On more of a down side, we're heading into spring and a usual ramp-up in tornado threat. The figure below shows the zero total for February, its average of 37, and an increase to an average of 90 in March. The monthly average continues to rise to a peak of 291 in May.

January 2010 had about 45% more tornadoes than average, but the tornado-free February has sent the year to a start that is 46% below average.

What does this mean for the rest of the year? Not much, actually. Quite often a slow start means a below-average year, but not always. Even the El Nino that we are currently in doesn't give a foolproof answer.

Research for some parts of the United States has shown a below-average tornado threat in El Nino years. But I went back and took a simple look at past years since 1950 that had El Nino in the December-to-February period as strong as or stronger than the one this year. The figure below shows the results for the whole United States for the whole year.

In 6 of the 9 comparable El Nino years in the past, and 6 of the last 7, the years wound up with above-average numbers of tornadoes. Overall, it was by an average of 9%. So, the year could wind up being active!

Large-scale factors don't necessarily control how bad a year becomes tornado-wise. Just a handful of storm systems can bring large tornado outbreaks, when all the weather ingredients temporarily come together. Let's hope that doesn't happen often this year!

Alright, I have been living with the "rogue wave" long enough! I see it on TV all the time and it has reared its ugly head once again in the news at a surf beach called Mavericks where it suddenly and without warning washed over some of the crowd watching big wave surfing there.

I just have to take a little time to clarify what it is and how we should expect them and how we are able to forecast them, yes, I said forecast a rogue wave!

First the definition of a "rogue wave" is, in a nut shell: a freak wave, monster wave, killer wave, extreme wave that is large and spontaneous on the ocean surface. Just the name rogue insights all kinds of persona, specifically a deceitful and unreliable scoundrel!

Wow, how can an oceanographic phenomenon appear to be such a villain, an unexpected freak event of nature? It definitely is not that, rather it is a part of the natural ocean wave spectrum and can be expected at any beach at any time.

If you have ever been to the beach you have seen a "rogue wave." As you sit on your beach towel watching waves roll in over some time you soon realize there are periods of average waves, periods that are relatively quiescent and occasionally there are brief periods of much higher waves. Those largest waves are the ones surfers sit far out in the water waiting for.

Below is a sample of wave height fluctuations as detected by a wave measuring device. You can see how variable in time waves are. Just glancing you see about 5 waves that really stand out, they are much higher than the rest of them. And this sample is only for about 170 seconds in time! If we had looked for a much longer time we would see a few waves that were much larger than any seen in this short record.

Image courtesy Coastal Data Information Program SCRIPPS Institute of Oceanography

So why are not waves constant in height and frequency on any day, instead of being highly variable in height and frequency during any interval of time? The answer is simple "if" you know anything about ocean waves.

You see wind causes ocean waves and it generates a "spectrum" of heights and periods (intervals between successive wave crests). A spectrum means a wide range of wave heights and periods from small to large and short to long, respectively. Wind does NOT generate waves of same height and period. That is why when you see photos of ships at sea in high waves it looks like a horrible chaotic mess of water rising and falling almost randomly, the "washing machine affect." This is caused by waves of different heights and periods interfering with each other sometimes adding together to produce a brief high local wave and sometimes nearly cancelling each other out to make a brief section of flat seas. But because this wave spectrum is moving, it is constantly generating brief big waves and brief flat areas in space and time.

So the graph above is an example of that wave spectrum showing some superposition of waves (the brief high spots on the graph) and waves that nearly cancel each other out (the brief low spots on the graph).

So these "high waves" are really not single waves at all, rather just momentary superposition of waves of varied heights and periods that will be fleeting in space and time. In effect these few "high waves" in this chart are the "rogue waves" within this very short wave sample! So you see they should be expected in every wave sample measured and seen at every beach you will ever go to and observe.

I traveled on the Sky Train about 20 miles south of Vancouver to the beautiful city of Richmond. The weather in this town of 190,000 people is quite a bit different than Vancouver's. It's 30% sunnier here than in Vancouver, due largely to the flat topography. I also found out that Richmond has the longest life expectancy of any city in Canada. Residents here live and average of 85 years! Wow!

Richmond is hosting a big Olympic Festival called "Ozone." It's a huge 66 acre interactive playground for the whole family.

The one event I attended was the ice sculpting competition. Keep in mind it's an outdoor event and the temperatures have been in the 50s for almost a week now. At least they carved inside a tent so the additional sunlight didn't make things worse.

Artists had 12 hours to carve their designs. The melting ice was a big challenge, but it did make for some crystal clear sculptures.

I thought I'd share some pics of the sculptures. My favorite one is the speed skater inside of a maple leaf.

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Wow, the weather never ceases to amaze us with its natural variability from month to month and from one year to the next. One great example comes in the large year to year change in frequency of Santa Ana wind events in Southern California.

I have written another blog on this topic, and I return to it again probably because I grew up in the heart of Santa Ana winds in San Diego and Orange Counties in Southern California. Man I remember some real blaster winds back in the "old days" especially the 1960's and early 1970's.

Dr. Lyons: What is the Santa Ana Wind?

Some Santa Ana wind events were so strong the power lines would whistle and my house roof would creak in strong gusts! We used to jump off of tall fences with our shirts and jackets flipped up above our heads with our arms, and parachute into the Santa Ana's, falling only gently to the lawn below! Oh course I only weighed 70 pounds back then! Yes, I also remember bad fires raging out of control as fire fighters basically looked on helplessly as flames raced in the hot dry Santa Ana winds flashing in defiance as they easily ran by fire breaks.

Smoke filled the LA Basin and eventually blew across the beaches where I surfed. Sucking in that smoky air in just one surf session would leave you wheezing for 2 days and no, I suffer from no asthma or allergy problems, it was caused by inhalation of all those large smoke particulates. But the great surf conditions made it all worthwhile and we surfers always longed for a good Santa Ana!

Well it turns out there have been numerous climate studies on Santa Ana winds.

Depending on how you classify a "Santa Ana" wind event, annual frequency of occurrence has been documented. Without much attention on how strong a Santa Ana wind event might be, most studies indicate an annual average of about 20 Santa Ana wind events per year, some of those being weak and short lived.

weather.com glossary: Santa Ana Wind

But that number fluctuates from an average of about 15 events on the low side to an average of about 25 events on the high side, with extremes from less than 10 events per year to about 30 events per year. Wow, that is a huge range.

Some studies have linked Santa Ana wind event frequency to El Nino (e.g. see Raphael, 2003) and indicate a slightly lower number of Santa Ana winds during El Nino winters. We surfers have known that since I was in high school, we were avid weather watches.

I had even built a weather instrument shelter on my roof to monitor winds, temperature, clouds and rainfall! With this measuring system on my roof I discovered the land breeze and the sea breeze phenomena and how to forecast their onset, only to read in books later that they had been known for hundreds of years, but what do you expect from an 8th grader!

Santa Ana winds occur in fall and winter. Well, El Nino has been occurring this winter. El Nino years are most typically characterized by fall and winter storm tracks that dip south and into Central and Southern California much more frequently than average with very changeable weather as lows and highs move across the area with higher than normal frequency.

Correspondingly, rainfall is usually well above average in Central and Southern California during El Nino, and they replace the weather pattern favorable for Santa Ana winds. This has been the case in 2009/2010.

My point, looking at the daily weather records from the National Weather Service Los Angeles indicates a huge dearth of Santa Ana winds this past fall and current winter! The peak wind at Los Angeles with a wind with an east or northeast direction (consistent with a Santa Ana) has been only 15 mph for October, November, December, January and thus far in February! Wow what a dud of a Santa Ana wind season!

Yeah, I know it has been a very welcome relief from huge wild fire threats for those of you who have homes in fire vulnerable areas, but instead you have mudslide/landslide threats from enhance rainfall, and enhance beach erosion due to strong onshore winds and elevated waves from rainy storms! I think the Santa Ana pattern is overall less damaging, except you were in desperate need of rain for your reservoirs.

Your chances are dwindling in a hurry, but grab a hollow, green tube for me if a Santa Ana shows before its season ends within the next month.

Related Links:

Dr. Forbes: Santa Ana Driven Wildfires

weatherREADY: Facts about Wind and Wildfires

Prunas x cerisifera means "ornamental plum tree" in Latin.

Many of them are blooming like crazy here in Vancouver compliments of the record warm January followed by this mild February, which is actually mimicking March.

I have always loved horticulture.

For those who spend countless hours in the yard, you know what it's like in spring when everything you have set in place for the rebirth explodes to life and grants you countless hours of free therapy on whatever ails you.

Enjoy a little early therapy :-)




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Wow, what a day, but you know I am really having a good time. Another bluebird day at Cypress for another live shot with Al Michaels as Dr. Doom.

When you see me as ... well, just Jim Cantore ... I am broadcast out of tent number 3 of 8 that are used for NBC properties.

Looking southeast out tent 3

Cause it's chilly

Looking east from tent 3

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Me and Al Roker met up with the Men's and Women's U.S. Curling team the other day. They were practicing for the Olympics and once they were finished they decided to teach us how to play.

Tossing the stone turned out to be MUCH harder than it looks and I took numerous spills (which were quite hilarious), but Al and I eventually got down some of the basics!

After we tossed and swept and learned about curling, we ended up talking to some people from Holland in the neighboring lane who were at the same skill level as us. It turns out one of them was the gold medalist in judo at the Beijing Olympics (or so they told us....I have subsequently done some Googling and I think it was Ruben Houkes Bronze medalist in the extra-lightweight division).

Al decided to tell them that I could do judo and next thing you know I am in a judo match with some random guy on the ice in a curling lane.

To see how it all went down, the curling and judo, watch WUWA and YWT this week or look for the video in the Olympic section here on weather.com.

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I have never been one to embrace my birthday. Ever since I was eighteen I never wanted to get older. Well that was until this February 16th, when my producer (seen here) let the cat out of the bag about my birthday.

I can't tell you how fun it was to have people say happy birthday to you all day long. There must have been 75 people who acknowledged it.

Now, it was helped along by Mr. Al Michaels when he suprised me on set with a birthday wish and a Dr. Doom title now forever embroidered on this hat.

I even got a birthday cake that went pretty quick, as you can see.

The fastest piece was eaten by NBC heavyweight Brian Williams, who litterally inhaled his piece in 10 seconds ... way too fast for me to even get my iPhone out, open the camera and shoot it.

I had a great birthday.




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There is something about the sun that just puts a smile on your face and a spring in your step. That's exactly what yours truly is feeling today.

Having been marred in clouds, rain and fog, it is in a word EPIC today. The sun is warm and everybody is just in a great mood. Vitamin D the natural way.

The bad side to all this nice weather is that it forces me out of a job.

Great news from Cypress; the environmentally safe fertilizer that they put down on the half pipe to flash freeze it washed deep into the snowpack from Monday's rain. After 16 hours of below freezing temperatures the half-pipe is now solid ice.

Now that's exactly what the doctor ordered.

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With the current tropical cyclone Gelane threatening Port Louis and La Reunion islands in the southwest Indian Ocean, it immediately brings to my mind La Reunion's tropical cyclone rainfall dynasty! Yes, a single island with many global short-term rainfall records, all of them a result of tropical cyclones!

La Reunion, with a population of about 800,000 is situated east of the much larger island of Madagascar which itself is east of Africa in the Southern Hemisphere.

La Reunion is built like a small basketball poking up from above the ocean (see the NASA satellite image below), hence it is roughly circular with two mountain peaks in its interior -- some peaks exceed 10,000 feet!

All coasts either immediately or eventually rise steadily toward the center of the island and most of them do it quickly with a slope of about 15-30 degrees as the photo below indicates for one edge of La Reunion.

This brief geography lesson is necessary to understand the rainfall records there. Now for the rainfall!

La Reunion Island (image courtesy of Wikipedia)

It turns out this unique island is situated directly in the average paths of western south Indian Ocean tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane), so it feels the impacts of direct hits or most frequently it feels the grazing impacts from by-passing tropical cyclones.

The unique aspect of this island is that it is notorious for copious amounts of rainfall when a tropical cyclone goes by, partly because they are usually recurving away from the tropics and toward the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and when doing so, usually move slowly through this turn from moving toward west or west-southwest to moving south-southeast, southeast or east-southeast.

Slow moving tropical cyclone winds, carrying massive or deep tropical moisture, are lifted up the very steep and high slopes of La Reunion, resulting in huge rainfall events. How huge is huge? Well, let me give some official global rainfall records this island holds (taken from Holland, G.J. (1993): WMO/TC-No. 560, Report No. TCP-31, World Meteorological Organization; Geneva, Switzerland and Philippe Caroff (Operation Head RSMC/TC Warning Center, La Reunion).

12 Hour Rainfall

223.5 inches
January 18-27, 1980 Cratère Commerson, La Reunion (elevation: 7577 feet)

As you can see it seems almost impossible for such rains to occur, but that is what happens when you lift deep tropical moisture over steep mountains for any extended length of time, you get wildly large rainfall efficiency!

So it is no wonder why I think "rainfall" when a tropical cyclone nears La Reunion Island.

Fortunately, today the official forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is for Gelane to move toward the south, east of this rain generating island with strong CAT 2 intensity. Of course a direct hit is not necessary for heavy rain to fall there; a slow moving tropical cyclone of any intensity can cause huge rainfall. Gelane is small and motion is currently not expected to stop, so a new record is unlikely.

Time will tell the story of Gelane's impact on La Reunion, which we hope is very minor!

All the talk at the Olympics has been about how warm it is in the 'couve ... it was a record warm January here. They are trucking and flying in snow onto Cypress Mountain, temperatures in Vancouver have been 5-10 degrees above average, and the cherry and apple blossoms are making an early appearance.

We were able to find the coldest place in Vancouver and believe it or not we had to go INSIDE!

We cabbed (many of the cabs here are hybrid -- love that) our way to Monk McQueens where they have the "Minus 5 Ice Lounge" It was like stepping into a meat locker that replaced the game with grain (alcohol that is).

I tasted a little cranberry juice (no alcohol added) out of a glass made of ice and it was really cold to drink out of (maybe I'm stating the obvious here). It was a fun experience that came with gloves and a big jacket so you could hang out in the "lounge" that was at a chilled -2C (that's 28F)!

You can also view a video format of this blog right here.

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Inukshuk (in-nook-shook). It is the the official emblem of the Winter Games and we got to see the exact one which was the inspiration.

This towering grey, granite sculpture sits on an outcropping at English Bay Beach in Vancouver. It was given to the city by the Northwest Territories after Expo '86 (North America's last world's fair).

These symbols of Inuit culture are built by humans and can be found from Alaska to Greenland.

You can also view a video format of this blog right here.

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I hate to admit it, but it appears as if the squirrels et al. nailed the forecast for this winter's weather. It's not only been a rough season, it's been, well, downright amazing.

Laughably, the cold and snow of the past few months have been cited as evidence that a stake has been driven into the heart of global warming. Why laughably? Come on. The contiguous United States represents about two percent of the Earth's surface.

A more comprehensive representation is offered by global satellite data that indicate the lower tropospheric temperature in January was the highest in the 32-year history of such records. And yes, El Nino was a contributer to this warmth.

But never mind. I'm not interested in getting into a protracted brouhaha over whether anthropogenic global warming did or didn't have its finger in this winter's frozen pie. What I'm really curious about is what this summer is going to be like. Trouble is, I don't know what kind of behavior I should be watching for in my friendly, local squirrels. (See, I really trust them now.)

I mean, if it's going to be a season of blistering heat waves, what do they do? Run around burying little kegs of cold beer? Stow snowballs in their nests? Steal empty tuna fish tins to use as wading pools? Shed their fur (that could be ugly)?

Help me out here. What are the signs?

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is already suggesting that June, July and August could be on the toasty side in the West, most of the South and much of the Eastern Seaboard.

But as far as I'm concerned, the final arbiters on this matter will be my backyard Sciurus carolinensis. If only I knew what to look for.

Hey, I could have sworn I had a half-empty tuna fish can sitting on my desk....

Note: Senior meteorologist Buzz Bernard is recently retired.

While visiting Stanley Park we got a chance to see the Lions Gate Bridge, which connects Vancouver to North Vancouver.

It's a little hard to see in the picture ... sorry about that, no zoom on the iPhone (does the 3Gs have zoom? ha)!

Anyway, this bridge was built by the Guinness Family (yes, those famous beer makers) back in 1937 for almost $6 million dollars (seems like A LOT of money for the 1930's ... it's a lot now, but seems like a whole lot for then) after they invested in land on the North Shore.

The suspension bridge is a landmark and a National Historic Site of Canada.

You can also view a video format of this blog right here.

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For a mountain mired in record heat in January that melted so much snow it caused a rather expensive panic, Cypress Mountain has pulled a 180.

As the Olympics approached we all read the stories about the dwindling snowpack and the waterfalls of melting gold (so to speak), but after a weekend of adreneline pumping moguls finals featuring Canada's first ever home turf Gold, Cypress has stolen the show.

What could have been a complete washout weekend with a huge storm of rain and wind that reminded me more of a tropical storm than a winter Olympic main event, became an electrying force forever instilled in Canadian history.

Hundreds of years ago the majic of Cypress kept settlers here, but this past weekend, it was a monumental task to one up Mother Nature that will keep Canada and her friends smiling for a long time.

Congratulations Canada on your first at home gold and your efforts on a spectacular venue at Cypress!

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The totem polls in Stanley Park are "the most visited tourist attraction in all of British Columbia!"

Some of the totem polls were carved in the 1880's! The meaning of totem polls vary for each person and culture, but a new totem poll was added just last year.

"In 2009, a new pole carved by Robert Yelton of the Squamish Nation was added to the site, bringing the total number of poles to nine. The pole pays tribute to Yelton's mother, Rose, who was one of the last residents of Stanley Park."

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It's amazing watching the clouds role into Vancouver, they almost scream rain long before it starts.

When I was here in December for Cantore Stories, it was unseasonable cold but sunny everyday as we had a rare visit from an Arctic High. Now I am ready (along with everyone else) to see the sun again.

Average temperature in February is 40 degrees F in Vancouver, making it the warmest winter Olympic host city on record.

A you know Stephanie Abrams is here for her morning shows, and when I come in during the morning once she finishes her TWC shows and I finish my NBC forecast, we go eat breakfast.

I have discovered that Steph has a fetish for bacon .... That's about the only sure forecast around here right now.

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This is a city view of Vancouver from Stanley Park.

Stanley Park was the city's first "greenspace" which opened in 1887 and is the most popular recreational facility in the 'couve.

It is "North America's 3rd largest urban core park" and is bigger than Central Park! It's seawall stretches 13.7 miles (that's more than a half marathon) and is filled with natural and man-made landmarks (look for my other blogs on these landmarks)!

If you look closely you'll see what looks like a mini "Space Needle" (yes, like the one in Seattle) ... it's called "Harbour Centre".

Per their website "The Lookout tops Harbour Centre which, at 177 meters (581 feet) high, is one of the tallest buildings in Vancouver and British Columbia. It's only slightly shorter than nearby Seattle's Space Needle that rises to 184.4 meters (605 feet)."

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It's amazing after 25 years how humbling this science can be and how far we have come in the world of forecasting.

Faster computers give us the ability to get very detailed results over blocks of streets today where ten years ago we could barely get a quarter of a state into that grid. As you might suspect the fine details of a forecast are much better these days, or are they...

Ok, now on to where I am going with this... Yesterday it snowed at 3000 feet on Cypress Mountain, the site of the freestyle and snowboard events. After seeing the temperature this morning was 31 degrees and trending colder, it seemed like a similiar forecast of wet snow. Well, much to my dismay on my trip to Cypress today I found the temperature at 35 degrees and the snow another 1200 feet up.

In the world of atmospheric science, a couple of degrees can make or break a forecaster and no matter how detailed the data you're only as good as you're interpolation of it.

The challenges only get harder with two more storms racing into all the Vancouver venues and potentially disrupting the first weekend of competition.

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I opened my closet when I got into my hotel room and BAM, look what I found!

Do you think they knew I was coming? They average 45.9" of rain a year here in Vancouver, that's a lot of rain (check out your cities rainfall average on weather.com for a comparison)!

There was a note on the umbrella saying that you could use it and return it and/or there was of course the option of buying it too! :-)

You can also view a video format of this blog right here.

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I have traveled A LOT and what I found at our Vancouver hotel is a first! Each morning when you get into the elevator the rug has the day of the week on it.

If you ever have one of those mornings when you wake up and say to yourself "What day is it?" Have no fear, just take the elevator (instead of the stairs, ha) and you will be "gtg" (good to go)!

You can also view a video format of this blog right here.

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Well, today the weight was a little heavier and the forecast through the first 3 days of competition looks challenging for Whistler and Cypress Mountain. I realize I am forecasting for elevation and temperature change within that elevation, two things that can bring a forecaster to his knees.

It looks wet, very wet through Monday at least. Temperatures will rise and fog, rain and snow will prove to be fierce competitors. I went up to Cypress Mountain today, leaving Vancouver and the rain, only to find heavy snow at times at 2500 feet. That made many smile, but unfortunately it won't last. By time competition starts Saturday, it will be raining at that venue and both raining and snowing at Whistler.

The forecast that is sure to bring home the "Gold" is one of sunshine and cold temperatures, two things lacking in the forseable future.

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